Shared Vision on Spatial Policies
For the protection and restoration of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity in the Danube River Basin and its Delta
A cross-sectoral vision integrating stakeholder engagement, spatial scenario development, and ecosystem-based policy modelling under the EU Mission "Restore our Ocean and Waters by 2030".
D3.3 is the final output of WP3 – Innovative Practices in Spatial Policies for the Protection and Restoration of Freshwater Ecosystems and Biodiversity. Building on D3.1 (inventory of ecosystem-based practices) and D3.2 (stakeholder session reports), it translates stakeholder-driven scenarios into policy-relevant spatial development strategies.
The deliverable uses Logical Framework Analysis (LFA) combined with Planning Support Systems (PSS) to enable evidence-based scenario modelling, dynamic spatial planning, and policy evaluation across diverse geographic and institutional contexts within the Danube Basin.
A structured methodology for integrating spatial and ecosystem-based planning in freshwater governance
Policy recommendations tailored to cross-border regions and urban-rural dynamics
Decision-support tools enabling participatory multi-actor collaboration in spatial planning
Strategic alignment with EU climate resilience, biodiversity protection, and sustainable land-use strategies
Validation of scenarios through Living Labs in real-life contexts including the Danube Delta
| Number | D3.3 |
| Work Package | WP3 |
| Task | T3.4 – Ecosystem impact assessment for urban land-use transformations |
| Due Date | M30 (June 2025) |
| Submitted | 26.06.2025 |
| Lead Partner | DDNI (Danube Delta National Institute) |
| Dissemination | Public |
The modelling framework is structured around the 3R approach, validated through participatory Living Labs and tested in locations such as the Danube Delta.
Restoration
Re-establishing ecological functions, connectivity, and biodiversity in degraded freshwater ecosystems across the Danube Basin. Based on evidence from ER/NbS projects.
Revitalization
Strengthening socio-ecological systems through adaptive governance, participatory planning, and integration of ecosystem services into spatial development frameworks.
Regeneration
Transformative change toward resilient, inclusive, and sustainable land-water governance aligned with EU Green Deal and Mission Ocean objectives by 2030.
Combining Logical Framework Analysis (LFA) with Planning Support Systems (PSS), the deliverable applies a six-stage process using System Dynamics, Cellular Automata, and Agent-Based Modelling.
Conceptual Framework
System Dynamics (SD), Cellular Automata (CA), and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) to map causal relationships, land-use transitions, and human-land interactions.
Data Collection & Processing
Geospatial (GIS, remote sensing), socio-economic (census, policy), and climate & hydrology (precipitation, temperature) datasets.
Scenario Development
Reference Scenario, Restoration Scenario, and Regeneration Scenario developed to assess future land-use interventions and policy impacts.
Participatory Planning
Stakeholder validation of the PSS framework through workshops, expert consultations, public participation, and policy analysis.
Model Validation & Policy Integration
Comparative case studies, sensitivity analysis, and ecosystem impact assessment to validate the PSS framework.
Visualization & Decision Support
GIS-based spatial analysis, AI-supported techniques, and Artificial Neural Networks to produce actionable policy recommendations.
Living Labs are open innovation ecosystems operating in real-life environments. They emphasize iterative feedback, co-creation, rapid prototyping, and scaling of solutions. The Danube & Black Sea Lighthouse acts as orchestrator between citizens, research organizations, companies, and government levels.
The EcoDaLLi Living Lab in the Danube Delta was organized with the Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests of Romania, Tulcea County Prefecture, and DDNI, engaging a wide range of institutional actors:
The Danube Delta Living Lab demonstrates the systemic interdependence of three critical domains for ecological restoration.
Water
Water balance and underground balance essential for hydrological integrity. Key actors: City & County Council, ANAR, ARBDD, Aquaserv. Central challenge: sufficient ecological flows.
Biodiversity
Habitat fragmentation and loss of ecological connectivity addressed through NbS. Socio-economic network includes citizens, local producers, markets, and DSP/Agromarkets.
Climate Change
LULUCF dynamics, outdated energy infrastructure, and financial constraints on lake level maintenance. Requires adaptive measures for local communities and ecosystems.
The three pillars of the EcoDaLLi Living Lab framework highlight the association of biodiversity conservation with European economic and social initiatives.
Biodiversity
Aligned with the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030:
- Transform ≥30% of EU land & seas into effectively managed protected areas
- Restore degraded ecosystems across the EU
- Promote NbS and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA)
- Reduce pressures on biodiversity through transformative change
Economy
Four economic transformation goals for 2030:
- Intensification – "Ecology First" vision: economy aligned with biodiversity conservation, not above it
- Differentiation – Public finance for developing countries; private sector for developed economies
- Pluralization – Multiple economic instruments for livelihoods, climate resilience & cultural value
- Marketing – Integrating market mechanisms to prevent market failure and overuse of natural assets
The shared vision connects to and supports the following European strategies and frameworks:
D3.3 lays the groundwork for coordinated, science-informed action across the Danube River Basin. By coupling LFA with PSS, the approach enables:
Evidence-based decision-making by policy-makers and spatial planners
Multi-stakeholder collaboration through Living Labs and co-creation workshops
Practical application of 3R restoration models across diverse ecological and institutional contexts
Capacity building and knowledge exchange facilitated by the EcoDaLLi Portal
Access the Full Deliverable
D3.3 is the final output of WP3, intended for policy-makers, spatial planners, researchers, and regional stakeholders.
Download D3.3 (PDF) Back to WP3